Silvia Trifonova
ESTIMATION OF THE FACTOR IMPACT OF INDEBTEDNESS AND SOLVENCY ON ENTERPRISES EFFICIENCY
Summary:
The main objective of this study is to research and estimate the impact of indebtedness and solvency on the efficiency of enterprises, first within a theoretical and methodological context, and second, by applying a profound empirical analysis on leading Bulgarian enterprises.
The motivation for this scientific research is associated with the fact that the efficiency (return, profitability) is a complex economic category, and its value depends on a number of economic factors. The research thesis is that indebtedness and solvency are important factors, impacting the efficiency of Bulgarian enterprises in a time of financial and economic crisis.
The applied author’s methodology is based on a profound empirical research, comprising two key components: first, an analysis of the separate individual indicators – efficiency, indebtedness and solvency of companies, without studying their interconnectedness, e.g. as relatively separate categories, and second, an analysis of the resulting bilateral trade-offs between the efficiency, indebtedness and solvency of enterprises, e.g. examining the following three relationships: „efficiency – indebtedness”, „efficiency – solvency” and „in¬debtedness – solvency”.
In order to achieve greater economic reliability in the current research, 50 leading enterprises in Bulgaria from different economic sectors are included in the study. The reviewed period is three years (2007-2009) during the global financial and economic crisis. As far as the structure of the study is concerned, first, the essence of risk and financial risk in particular is revealed, as well as their quantitative estimations and influence on the financial state-ment of enterprises. Second, the study analyzes extensively the peculiarities of the assessment of financial indebtedness and solvency of enterprises, which serves as a basis for the further parallel estimations of the bilateral trade-offs: „efficiency – indebtedness”, „efficiency – solvency” and „indebt-edness – solvency”. Finally, a detailed study is made on the developments in efficiency under the influence of indebtedness and solvency of the examined Bulgarian enterprises. The study concludes with summarizing the results ob-tained from the profound empirical research.
The main conclusions from the empirical study are the following: 1) During the period 2007-2009 there is a small number of Bulgarian enterprises, which are distinguished by a high efficiency on the invested capital ratio. Many companies have a normal efficiency ratio, but those with a low efficiency ratio make up almost ¾. 2) According to the degree of indebtedness, the Bulgarian practice shows that there is a seriously deteriorated financial statement of those enterprises that have structural importance for the national economy. ¾ of those companies have an unfavourable „debt – equity” ratio level. 3) The solvency ratio of the investigated Bulgarian enterprises tends to shift from high and satisfactory solvency levels towards a low solvency level. However, there is certain ambition in some companies to be mindful of their solvency issues during the financial and economic crisis, so as to prevent themselves from declaring bankruptcy. This is proved by the fact that almost ½ of the reviewed enterprises are characterized by a high solvency ratio. 4) During the period 2007-2009 the observed highest impact of the heavy in¬debtedness ratio (60%) is determinant of the low efficiency on the invested capital of the reviewed 50 enterprises in Bulgaria. The impact of the low (26%) indebtedness ratio is lower and it shows in what directions the efforts should be concentrated with a view to increase the overall corporate efficiency.
Silvia Trifonova
TRENDS IN THE CHANGE OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES OF BULGARIA
Summary:
The main purpose of the study is to analyze the key trends in the developments of Bulgaria’s macroeconomic imbalances. The analysis of macroeconomic imbalances is extremely important because imbalances in one member state of the European Union (EU) can have a negative impact on other member states in the Union. These imbalances are identified by the European Commission on the basis of annual Alert Mechanism Reports (ARM) published by it. The first Alert Mechanism Report of 2012 is the initial step in the implementation of a new supervisory procedure for preventing and correcting macroeconomic imbalances – „Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure“ (MIP). The surveillance aimed to prevent and correct macroeconomic imbalances in the MIP framework has been introduced as an important tool in the EU’s economic governance framework. It is accepted as part of the so-called “Six-pack“ of legislative measures to strengthen the EU economic governance, which, among other things, provides for a significant strengthening of the oversight of EU Member States fiscal policies. The surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances in the MIP is part of the European Semester, which adopts an integrated and preventive approach to the EU economic policy challenges aimed at ensuring fiscal sustainability, competitiveness, financial market stability, and economic growth.
The present study focuses on the indicators within the MIP, describing the external imbalances and the competitiveness of the Bulgarian economy, and the trends in their change. These indicators are part of a total of 14 main indicators contained in the so-called „MIP Scoreboard“ for macroeconomic imbalances surveillance. The external sector indicators are the following five: 1) Current account balance of the balance of payments; 2) Net international investment position; 3) Real effective exchange rate; 4) Export market share in world exports; 5) Nominal unit labor cost. The units of each of these indicators, the data sources and their statistical domains are presented in the study.
For each of the indicators, indicative thresholds are set in the MIP Scoreboard. The period analyzed in the study is from 2010 to 2021, inclusive. This period corresponds to the Alert Mechanism Reports published by the European Commission from 2012 to 2023 inclusive.
Emphasis in the present study is placed on the analysis of macroeconomic imbalances in the external sector and competitiveness in the Bulgarian economy. For this purpose, the external sector indicators from the MIP Scoreboard are analyzed in the study. The latter have not been fulfilled by Bulgaria, i.e. they are beyond their indicative thresholds, during the period from 2010 to 2021, inclusive. For these indicators, the European Commission has found that there are external macroeconomic imbalances in Bulgaria during the period under review. In practice, these are the indicators net international investment position, nominal unit labour costs and balance on the current account of the balance of payments.
The present study contributes to a more complete interpretation of the quantitative data in the MIP Scoreboard for Bulgaria and the associated assessments of risks to macroeconomic stability in the context of the specifics of the national economy.
