Silvia Trifonova
TRENDS IN THE CHANGE OF THE MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES OF BULGARIA
Summary:
The main purpose of the study is to analyze the key trends in the developments of Bulgaria’s macroeconomic imbalances. The analysis of macroeconomic imbalances is extremely important because imbalances in one member state of the European Union (EU) can have a negative impact on other member states in the Union. These imbalances are identified by the European Commission on the basis of annual Alert Mechanism Reports (ARM) published by it. The first Alert Mechanism Report of 2012 is the initial step in the implementation of a new supervisory procedure for preventing and correcting macroeconomic imbalances – „Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure“ (MIP). The surveillance aimed to prevent and correct macroeconomic imbalances in the MIP framework has been introduced as an important tool in the EU’s economic governance framework. It is accepted as part of the so-called “Six-pack“ of legislative measures to strengthen the EU economic governance, which, among other things, provides for a significant strengthening of the oversight of EU Member States fiscal policies. The surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances in the MIP is part of the European Semester, which adopts an integrated and preventive approach to the EU economic policy challenges aimed at ensuring fiscal sustainability, competitiveness, financial market stability, and economic growth.
The present study focuses on the indicators within the MIP, describing the external imbalances and the competitiveness of the Bulgarian economy, and the trends in their change. These indicators are part of a total of 14 main indicators contained in the so-called „MIP Scoreboard“ for macroeconomic imbalances surveillance. The external sector indicators are the following five: 1) Current account balance of the balance of payments; 2) Net international investment position; 3) Real effective exchange rate; 4) Export market share in world exports; 5) Nominal unit labor cost. The units of each of these indicators, the data sources and their statistical domains are presented in the study.
For each of the indicators, indicative thresholds are set in the MIP Scoreboard. The period analyzed in the study is from 2010 to 2021, inclusive. This period corresponds to the Alert Mechanism Reports published by the European Commission from 2012 to 2023 inclusive.
Emphasis in the present study is placed on the analysis of macroeconomic imbalances in the external sector and competitiveness in the Bulgarian economy. For this purpose, the external sector indicators from the MIP Scoreboard are analyzed in the study. The latter have not been fulfilled by Bulgaria, i.e. they are beyond their indicative thresholds, during the period from 2010 to 2021, inclusive. For these indicators, the European Commission has found that there are external macroeconomic imbalances in Bulgaria during the period under review. In practice, these are the indicators net international investment position, nominal unit labour costs and balance on the current account of the balance of payments.
The present study contributes to a more complete interpretation of the quantitative data in the MIP Scoreboard for Bulgaria and the associated assessments of risks to macroeconomic stability in the context of the specifics of the national economy.
